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This Trend Is Not Your Friend

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The S&P 500 hit another record high last week on the back of an employment report that was boosted by "large seasonal adjustments," which is really just another way of saying the government is manipulating the numbers.

Even after these adjustments, however, three- and six-month average job growth is below 200,000 and also lower than a year ago. The last two months' reports were boosted by higher government hiring (+71,000, the highest two month level since 2010).

Private sector jobs growth is running at a lower 3-month average of 150,000, down significantly from 221,000 in 2015 and 240,000 in 2014.

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